Offaly constituency profile: Even without a Cowen in the race, it would be big upset if Fianna Fáil lost out

Outgoing TDs: Charlie Flanagan (FG – retiring), Carol Nolan (Ind), Sean Fleming (FF), Brian Stanley (Ind), Barry Cowen (FF – now MEP)
Who are the Offaly constituency candidates?:
Offaly returning officer website
It is the first time since the 1960s that a Cowen will not be on the Fianna Fáil ticket in Offaly, with Barry Cowen’s election to the European Parliament in June. It has not been plain sailing for the party in Offaly since.
Tullamore businessman and councillor Tony McCormack and Edenderry-based nurse Cllr Claire Murray are Fianna Fáil’s candidates. Eddie Fitzpatrick – who was elected as a Fianna Fáil councillor with almost 2,000 votes in June – lost out at the party’s general election selection convention. He quit the party in October after Murray was added to the ticket. Fitzpatrick is now running as an Independent.
Carol Nolan, an Independent TD – formerly of Sinn Féin – is the only incumbent in the race. Located smack bang in the Midlands, the constituency is now a three-seater, having previously been part of the five-seat Laois-Offaly before 2023′s boundary review. All the other outgoing TDs are Laois-based. Nolan has said the new constituency is a “crowded field” and insisted in a social media post “no seat is a safe seat and certainly the rumour circulating that my seat is a safe seat or that it’s certain I’ll be re-elected is not true at all”.
Sinn Féin councillor Aoife Masterson, who put in a decent showing in the local elections, will hope she can chip away at her former party colleague’s support.
Publican and glamping site operator Cllr John Clendennen is running for Fine Gael. The party has not had an Offaly-based TD since former junior minister Marcella Corcoran Kennedy lost her seat in 2020.
Minister of State Pippa Hackett is running for the Green Party but has a mountain to climb if she is to take a seat. Her party mustered just over 800 votes in the local elections between three candidates, including Ms Hackett’s husband Mark, who lost his council seat. Independent Ireland is running Cllr Fergus McDonnell, who won a council seat in June with 1,320 first-preference votes. Aontú’s candidate is Travellers’ rights activist Maureen Ward.
Tullamore is the big population centre, while towns such as Edenderry and Birr are at opposite ends of the county. Affordable housing, the cost of living and supports for farmers are concerns for voters. So-called “just transition” efforts as part of the State’s climate action plans are a live issue with the phasing-out of peat-burning in power plants in recent years. A significant number of householders still use turf to heat their homes.
Nolan has a decent chance of holding her seat and it would be a major upset if Fianna Fáil did not take at least one seat due to the Cowen legacy. Fine Gael might be best placed to take the third seat.
Possible outcome: Independent (1), Fianna Fáil (1), Fine Gael (1)